IOWA CAUCUS-WHO GOES, WHO STAYS

The Iowa Caucus is more a media event than an accurate predictor of presidential success. Since 1972 when George McGovern's campaign manager engineered the early January date for the caucus that was picked up and played up by the New York Times, the caucuses have been useful in determining who is competitive; that is who stays in and who drops out of the race. Since then for the Democrats on five occasions the winner of the caucus became the nominee for the party (1980, Carter; 1984, Mondale; 1996 Clinton; 2000 Gore; 2004 Kerry) Only once has that nominee won the Presidency. For the Republicans six winners became the nominee (1976 Ford; 1984 Reagan; 1992 HW Bush; 1996 Dole; 2000 and 2004 W. Bush). Three times the caucus has been predictive for the presidency on the Republican side: Reagan in 1984, and W. Bush in both his races. In fact, George W. Bush is the only non-incumbent to win the caucus, the nomination, and the Presidency. No incumbent has had opposition in the caucus except Jimmy Carter in 1980 (Ted Kennedy). With no incumbent in the caucus, winners only get the nomination half the time. In 1988 in both parties, it was the men in third place who went on to become the nominee.